Bitcoin’s Most Reliable Signal Just Flashed—Next Stop: $170,000

The Hash Ribbon “buy” trigger – a signal embedded in Bitcoin’s network hashrate dynamics – has flashed again, and technical analyst Astronomer Zero believes it could pave the way to at least $170,000 per coin. A chart the analyst posted on X on 12 June overlays every prior weekly‐time-frame Hash Ribbon entry since 2020 on the BTC/USDT perpetual contract at Binance, illustrating why the signal is treated with almost talismanic respect by some quantitative traders.

Bitcoin Surge To $170,000 Imminent?

The graphic shows five earlier occurrences of the capitulation-to-recovery crossover embedded in the Hash Ribbon algorithm. Each is marked on the price pane by a cobalt-blue “Buy” dot directly beneath the weekly candles and linked to the ensuing rally by a violet measuring arrow.

After the signal in late-2020, Bitcoin accelerated by 235% from the $18,000 consolidation floor to challenge the then-all-time-high zone just above $60,000 before any major pull-back unfolded. Mid-2021’s ribbon event proved more modest – roughly 59% from a $30,000 base into resistance near $48,000 – yet it still respected the rule that the market rewards the crossover with significant upside.

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The next two signals, printed in late-2022 and early-2023, were far stronger: a 260% surge from the capitulation trough below $18,000, followed by a 175% leg in mid-2023 that carried price cleanly to the long-standing supply shelf in the $60,000 area. In mid-2024, the hash ribbon signal led to a 100% rally above $100,000.

Most recently, the ribbon crossed again three weeks ago, with Bitcoin quoted at roughly $105,000 on the weekly close. The analyst annotates current price at $106,873 and draws a fresh horizontal barrier at the $160,000–$165,000 band – the level that would align with the mean magnitude of earlier post-signal advances. Were the market merely to match the smallest historical percentage move (≈ 60%) from the present crossover, spot would extend to the $170,000 region indicated in crimson on the chart.

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Hash Ribbon logic is mechanical. When the 30-day moving average of network hashrate climbs back above the 60-day average after a period of miner capitulation, on-chain observers read it as an all-clear that forced selling pressure has exhausted. In the past, that transition has coincided with aggressive spot accumulation visible on-chain and in derivatives positioning.

Sceptics will note that correlation is not causation and that a six-figure quote for Bitcoin already bakes in ETF inflows, a looming halving supply shock and a global liquidity cycle that could yet tighten. Still, Astronomer Zero’s chart underscores an objective fact: in the last half-decade the Hash Ribbon “buy” has never mis-fired. Whether history’s rhythm repeats or merely rhymes, traders are watching the $170,000 level marked on the chart as the next test of that record.

At press time, BTC was down 3.1% over the past 24 hours, trading at $104,898.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com